Wednesday 23 June 2010

Greece first then Spain

greece
spain-flag

Spain’s Caja’s  are still trying to merge in the hope of beating the June 30 deadline to tap a €99 billion (£84 billion) government bank rescue fund. The Spanish government wants the 45 regional caja banks to shrink to 15. It is part of a desperate government effort to restore confidence in the faltering economy, which threatens to drag down the rest of the eurozone.
The currency faces further pressure from Greece, which is studying plans to restructure its debt despite a multi-billion-euro bailout from Germany, France and the IMF.  The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a London economics consultancy that is advising the Athens government, said Greece would be unable to escape its debt trap unless it devalued its currency to boost exports.
The only way for this to happen is for Greece to leave the euro. Until now, this has been played down as it would set in motion the break-up of the single currency.
Spain has the highest unemployment in Europe at 20% and a budget deficit that is 9.3% of GDP, and similar to Greece the unions are fighting anything that increases unemployment, by striking. The Spanish government has recently passed by just one vote 15 billion euros of cuts, including a 5% across-the-board pay reduction for civil servants.
All this is pain, just like Greece, is causing disruption to the economy. If Greece leaves the euro and devalues giving it breathing space, Spain will follow quickly. It is the easy way out. Back to the peseta.

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