Sunday 28 November 2010

Spain in money trouble?

bullAfter Ireland was finally forced this week to ask for financial help from the European Union and International Monetary Fund it is possible that a similar fate could await Spain.
In the first four months of 2011, the Spanish government and the country's banks must raise about €70bn (£59.2bn) in the bond market, which would be a "big test for investor appetite".
So the challenges facing Spain remain substantial – with the likelihood of a positive outcome poor until at least the sovereign and the banks have successfully navigated their way over the funding hump facing them both in Spring 2011.
The situation facing Spain is in some respects similar to that which led to the implosion of the Irish banking system, with international investors reluctant to buy the country's bonds as fears remain over the risks contained within the financial system.
While the Irish government repeatedly insisted it was fully-funded for the next year, the funding position of the Irish banks made the bail-out inevitable as they faced redemptions of €25bn in government-guaranteed debt they had issued.
Simply put, the Irish sovereign has been dismembered by its banking system.
The Spanish government has set up an €99bn fund to help its banks, however only €12bn of this is pre-funded and €11bn has already been drawn down, meaning the country will have to borrow more from the bond market to fund the rest. Spanish pensions funds could be leaned on to buy some of the bonds, but not enough to cover the entire amount the government will need to raise.

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